Okay, I've been trying to find information on forex scalping and the pickings are mightly slim indeed. In fact, the so-called information on the net is so bad I'm going to write up a small post of my own... because I'm sure if you found this page you are desperately looking for some real information.
What Is Scalping?
Quite simply, very short term trading.
Why Don't Brokers Like Scalping?
Well, some brokers don't like scalping because of how they are set up. If they are not able to execute your trades quickly or efficiently enough then they risk being the source of your profits.
Does Scalping Work?
I've seen some people claiming that it works great as well as others claiming that it is impossible to do profitably. The reality is that if you can predict the direction that an equity pair will move, either up or down, then you can hop into the market and grab a few pips when it happens.
How Easy Is It To Predict Equity Pair Price Changes?
Well, that's the million dollar question! I don't have any books to sell or anything, but a lot of people claim to have solutions for you. Personally, I think if they really had solutions that worked they wouldn't waste time telling you about it, they'd be busy trading. However, in an effort to be informative, when you spend enough time watching a market (which is quite boring) you'll get a feel for it's current state and how it is moving. Often, until conditions change, you can be fairly accurate with your predictions.
Can Anyone Do This?
If you find a market maker that doesn't mind scalping, you can try. However, you must know how to place stop and limit orders with their trading platform. In particular, it would be very nice if you were able to have someting known as a trailing stop. As well you will want to understand the concept of leverage as it applies to a forex account. Basically, I'd suggest throwing $100 at a starter account and playing around, carefully, until you've made enough bad decisions to learn how things work. After that, you should have the tools needed to try out various strategies.
How Much Effort Is It?
Scalping is very time consuming. You have to spend a lot of time watching the markets, to the point that it would be difficult to do well if you had an existing full time job. Also, scalping is very demanding from a psychological point of view, as you will have large amounts of your capital ready to put into play, but you may have to wait hours before you spot a good entry point. Then, upon entry, you might find you are back out with a small loss in no time. Alternately, you might get a small profit, take it, and then watch the market skyrocket after your exit. The shorter your trading is the more attention it will take and the more nerve wracking it will be.
Are You Scalping?
I'm thinking about it. I've been opening up a grid strategy to catch swing trades, but I have noticed that using half of the scalping mentality to accumulate positions in trends may be able to have a significant positive impact on my results. I guess I'll end up letting you know how things work out.
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Saturday, September 6, 2008
Part Time Currency Trader
As I've written before it is quite easy to become a currency trader. The harder part is being a currency trader that doesn't lose money. You see, according to the scuttlebutt on the forums, about 90% of new traders end up losing their money to the market.
Are you thinking about trying your hand?
I'm not here to talk you out of it. I myself am a part time currency trader. By day I work at my office job and by night I fight crime with a mask and cape. Wait, no, that's not right. By night I trade online when family duties allow me to squander a chunk of time.
Trading part time has it's challenges. You will see endless market movements that you did not participate in. You will miss opportunities to open or close a position even though your ideas about what would happen next were proven right. In fact, a very large part of trading well involves being able to deal with the psychological aspects of trading, whether part time or not.
If you read other posts in my blog, such as this one on trading philosophy, you'll see that I recommend working with very small trades. If you take larger trades, relative to your available capital, you'll find the emotional stress greatly magnified. It is very difficult to make good decisions as you watch your capital evaporate before your eyes.
Nothing will drive you from the market quicker than watching your capital shrink, panicking and saving what little you can, and then watching the market reverse leaving you without a stake. Or, perhaps worse, you do get back in after seeing a healthy rise, only to watch the market reverse yet again and wreak havoc on your capital once again.
It happens. I'm sure it happens a lot.
Did I mention that I'm not trying to talk you out of becoming a currency trader? It certainly isn't impossible to trade successfully but you really have to understand that there are many different ways to be unsuccessful. One very easy way to fail is to enter the market during a period in which it is easy to understand market behavior, think that trading is quite easy, and then have the market turn upside down and brutally fleece you.
Let's see. Yes, another painful lesson is developing the discipline to set stops and then have them tripped trivially, while the market does in fact go in the direction that you expected. Of course, this sets you up for the opposite, hanging on to a trade endlessly expecting to go as you expected, while it sucks up more and more capital.
My advice, do become a currency trader. Take your time. Learn with a practice account. Eventually, switch to a micro or nano account and trade with very small amounts of money. Continue to play with very small capitalizations until you have blown up your account once or twice -- this happens when you get a margin call and all your funds (except active margin) are forfeited.
Take the long view. There is always going to be another opportunity. No currency pair moves only up or only down. When trading part time you must either make accurate predictions or tread softly enough that the market can't move far enough to cause a margin call.
Anyway, to get into some information you can act on, if you are totally new to the game you'll want to know the following:
Are you thinking about trying your hand?
I'm not here to talk you out of it. I myself am a part time currency trader. By day I work at my office job and by night I fight crime with a mask and cape. Wait, no, that's not right. By night I trade online when family duties allow me to squander a chunk of time.
Trading part time has it's challenges. You will see endless market movements that you did not participate in. You will miss opportunities to open or close a position even though your ideas about what would happen next were proven right. In fact, a very large part of trading well involves being able to deal with the psychological aspects of trading, whether part time or not.
If you read other posts in my blog, such as this one on trading philosophy, you'll see that I recommend working with very small trades. If you take larger trades, relative to your available capital, you'll find the emotional stress greatly magnified. It is very difficult to make good decisions as you watch your capital evaporate before your eyes.
Nothing will drive you from the market quicker than watching your capital shrink, panicking and saving what little you can, and then watching the market reverse leaving you without a stake. Or, perhaps worse, you do get back in after seeing a healthy rise, only to watch the market reverse yet again and wreak havoc on your capital once again.
It happens. I'm sure it happens a lot.
Did I mention that I'm not trying to talk you out of becoming a currency trader? It certainly isn't impossible to trade successfully but you really have to understand that there are many different ways to be unsuccessful. One very easy way to fail is to enter the market during a period in which it is easy to understand market behavior, think that trading is quite easy, and then have the market turn upside down and brutally fleece you.
Let's see. Yes, another painful lesson is developing the discipline to set stops and then have them tripped trivially, while the market does in fact go in the direction that you expected. Of course, this sets you up for the opposite, hanging on to a trade endlessly expecting to go as you expected, while it sucks up more and more capital.
My advice, do become a currency trader. Take your time. Learn with a practice account. Eventually, switch to a micro or nano account and trade with very small amounts of money. Continue to play with very small capitalizations until you have blown up your account once or twice -- this happens when you get a margin call and all your funds (except active margin) are forfeited.
Take the long view. There is always going to be another opportunity. No currency pair moves only up or only down. When trading part time you must either make accurate predictions or tread softly enough that the market can't move far enough to cause a margin call.
Anyway, to get into some information you can act on, if you are totally new to the game you'll want to know the following:
- Most, if not all, companies that offer online foreign exchange trading provide free forex demo accounts. These practice accounts are the same as live accounts except of course that you don't trade real money.
- A currency trading platform is simply a fancy name for what is usually branded currency trading software. This software will let you view charts for various currency pairs, add indicators and execute trades
- Forex trading is global. You can trade starting on Monday moring in Asia until Friday night in New York. Trading is 24x7 during this period though each trading session will offer differing market volume and behavior.
- If you are looking for a place to open your first forex demo account I'd suggest Oanda. To ensure that you don't think I'm compensated to say that I'll ask you to search Google to find them. They are a reputable company that allows you to trade with very small amounts -- which is great for starting out.
How To Become A Currency Trader
If you are anything like me, you probably imagine that it is difficult to become a foreign currency trader. Perhaps there are rules, regulations and other hoops that have to be jumped through. Maybe you need large amounts of cash in order to get started.
No.
Becoming a Forex currency trader is incredibly simple!
Get A Demo Account
As I beginner I'd suggest you sign up with Oanda. Not only do they have a good reputation but they offer other advantages for a beginning trader as well:
So, that's what I did. I started with $100 in my account and was off to the markets. Sweet, I'm a forex trader!
Learning To Trade Foreign Exchange
If you have a demo account, enter some trades. See what happens. Then, after the results come in, search for information about what happened. You'll find some helpful advice in blogs, such as mine, as well as various tutorial and forum sites. I would suggest that you buy a book or two on forex trading, technical analysis and perhaps something concerning the attributes of successful traders.
However, with a few dollars on the table, I realize that now the more difficult process starts. Now that I have a few dollars on the table I'm ready to start learning the lessons of the trade. Frankly, I won't be able to trade realistically if I am not actually risking my own money, so I have to do it this way. Of course, for most people, $100 is not a big enough sum of money to be a hardship if lost anyway.
So, I'm just blathering because the markets are currently closed for their regular weekend respite. I'm sitting in a precarious position because I have some open trades on my account and there is no telling what shape the market will be in when Sunday evening rolls around. I may be lucky and end up way ahead or I may be unlucky and lose my initial $100 payment. Another potential lesson is looming...
Oh, I should mention, these days Forex trading with a reputable company is quite safe. While there are large risks and large rewards, my risks are essentially limited to the capital that I have put into my account. With wise strategies I can limit risks further, but as a beginner it is comforting to know that I can't lose more than I let sit in my account no matter how foolish a beginner mistake I might make.
UPDATE:
I should stress that you could lose all the capital you put in your account, so do not start out with a large account with the idea that you will only conduct small trades. At the very least, create some sub-accounts and keep the majority of your capital out of harms way until you have blown up your play money account, learned a few lessons, and know how to protect your capital.
Further Reading
If you are still at the stage of thinking about becoming a currency trader I suggest you read my post about being a part time currency trader next...
No.
Becoming a Forex currency trader is incredibly simple!
Get A Demo Account
As I beginner I'd suggest you sign up with Oanda. Not only do they have a good reputation but they offer other advantages for a beginning trader as well:
- You can sign up for a live account with very little initial capital.
- You can execute trades of just about any arbitrary (small) size.
So, that's what I did. I started with $100 in my account and was off to the markets. Sweet, I'm a forex trader!
Learning To Trade Foreign Exchange
If you have a demo account, enter some trades. See what happens. Then, after the results come in, search for information about what happened. You'll find some helpful advice in blogs, such as mine, as well as various tutorial and forum sites. I would suggest that you buy a book or two on forex trading, technical analysis and perhaps something concerning the attributes of successful traders.
However, with a few dollars on the table, I realize that now the more difficult process starts. Now that I have a few dollars on the table I'm ready to start learning the lessons of the trade. Frankly, I won't be able to trade realistically if I am not actually risking my own money, so I have to do it this way. Of course, for most people, $100 is not a big enough sum of money to be a hardship if lost anyway.
So, I'm just blathering because the markets are currently closed for their regular weekend respite. I'm sitting in a precarious position because I have some open trades on my account and there is no telling what shape the market will be in when Sunday evening rolls around. I may be lucky and end up way ahead or I may be unlucky and lose my initial $100 payment. Another potential lesson is looming...
Oh, I should mention, these days Forex trading with a reputable company is quite safe. While there are large risks and large rewards, my risks are essentially limited to the capital that I have put into my account. With wise strategies I can limit risks further, but as a beginner it is comforting to know that I can't lose more than I let sit in my account no matter how foolish a beginner mistake I might make.
UPDATE:
I should stress that you could lose all the capital you put in your account, so do not start out with a large account with the idea that you will only conduct small trades. At the very least, create some sub-accounts and keep the majority of your capital out of harms way until you have blown up your play money account, learned a few lessons, and know how to protect your capital.
Further Reading
If you are still at the stage of thinking about becoming a currency trader I suggest you read my post about being a part time currency trader next...
Forex: What Is A Pip?
If you are a beginning forex trader you might be wondering what exactly a pip is. Everyone throws around the lingo but hardly anyone ever stops to give a good explanation that makes things clear for the aspiring trader.
Generally, a pip is explained as the least significant digit of a price quote.
So, if the US Dollar (USD) trades at 120.19 JPY (Japanese Yen) then each unit of change, such as a an increase increase in value of the USD to 120.20 JPY, involves a one pip change in price.
I'm going to step out on a limb and say that a PIP is a price increment point. However, the more confusing official terminology is apparently percentage in point. Which is less confusing?
Either way, it's a single point of change in the quote price between two currencies. Now, while this is very simple, it can be confusing at first when you find out that different currency pairs are quoted to a varying number of digits.
By way of example, here are some relatively current price quotes for various currency pairs:
- AUD/JPY 093.29
AUD/USD 0.8574
EUR/USD 1.4668
EUR/JPY 159.62
GBP/JPY 198.05
GBP/USD 1.8204
NZD/USD 0.7001
USD/CAD 1.0635
USD/JPY 108.75
Why such a feature is enabled by default is something that mystifies me. I guess people in the forex industry soon forget what it is like to be at the beginning of your trading experience -- things can be confusing at first.
Best Forex Trader Return
I see people in various forums asking what the best rate of return is for professional forex traders.
What kind of question is that?
Do you want an annualized answer based on a great trading day? I could boast a fabulous rate of return if I did that, but it wouldn't be meaningful.
How about an annualized rate of return for a trader's best month? No? Maybe some arbitrary consecutive twelve month period? Oh, maybe you wanted a number representing January through December?
Forex trading does not really have a linear behavior that makes it easy to determine what a good rate of return is. Are you a cautious trader? Are you more comfortable taking large risks? Are you trying to accumulate a carry trading position?
Even if you do get someone to tell you what they made over a suitable period of time, you have to realize that past results are not a reliable way to predict the future. Situations change. Economies change on a global scale. Political events that elevate risk levels happen all the time. Just as with stocks, you can never really be sure what will happen.
On a more personal level you are either profitable or you are not. If you are profitable you either have enough of a track record to make a living off it, if you even wanted to, or you don't. If you don't have enough capital to make a living off it, then you can work to build your capital if you are profitable.
Worry about being profitable. Worry about preservation of capital. Don't worry so much about what other people can do or claim to do. This isn't a market that is set up for easy measurement and comparison between participants.
Rest assured, the best rate of return out there is going to be much higher than you or I will be able to earn.
What kind of question is that?
Do you want an annualized answer based on a great trading day? I could boast a fabulous rate of return if I did that, but it wouldn't be meaningful.
How about an annualized rate of return for a trader's best month? No? Maybe some arbitrary consecutive twelve month period? Oh, maybe you wanted a number representing January through December?
Forex trading does not really have a linear behavior that makes it easy to determine what a good rate of return is. Are you a cautious trader? Are you more comfortable taking large risks? Are you trying to accumulate a carry trading position?
Even if you do get someone to tell you what they made over a suitable period of time, you have to realize that past results are not a reliable way to predict the future. Situations change. Economies change on a global scale. Political events that elevate risk levels happen all the time. Just as with stocks, you can never really be sure what will happen.
On a more personal level you are either profitable or you are not. If you are profitable you either have enough of a track record to make a living off it, if you even wanted to, or you don't. If you don't have enough capital to make a living off it, then you can work to build your capital if you are profitable.
Worry about being profitable. Worry about preservation of capital. Don't worry so much about what other people can do or claim to do. This isn't a market that is set up for easy measurement and comparison between participants.
Rest assured, the best rate of return out there is going to be much higher than you or I will be able to earn.
Carry Trade Accumulation Strategy
As I haven't seen this forex tactic expressed anywhere else I thought I'd blog about it and share it with my small readership.
Are you familiar with trailing stops?
This is when you set a stop loss some number of points below the current price and then allow that stop loss to float when the price moves in a profitable direction.
Well, I'm not going to talk about stop losses, but the idea is similar. What I'm going to describe is a trailing limit order.
Let's say, for example, that you think the GBPJPY is starting to look like a good deal. Instead of jumping on and buying it you may want to set a limit purchase order above the current price. The odds are good, given recent history, that the price will drop further.
Bingo. You can then adjust your limit order and trail the market price by some appropriate level. Be warned that the price could spike, activating your purchase, and then continue dropping. In today's environment you can then save yourself the risk of acquiring a position until the price does show some type of strength.
I'm not aware of any forex trading platform implementing this so you'll have to execute a manual trailing limit order yourself.
Are you familiar with trailing stops?
This is when you set a stop loss some number of points below the current price and then allow that stop loss to float when the price moves in a profitable direction.
Well, I'm not going to talk about stop losses, but the idea is similar. What I'm going to describe is a trailing limit order.
Let's say, for example, that you think the GBPJPY is starting to look like a good deal. Instead of jumping on and buying it you may want to set a limit purchase order above the current price. The odds are good, given recent history, that the price will drop further.
Bingo. You can then adjust your limit order and trail the market price by some appropriate level. Be warned that the price could spike, activating your purchase, and then continue dropping. In today's environment you can then save yourself the risk of acquiring a position until the price does show some type of strength.
I'm not aware of any forex trading platform implementing this so you'll have to execute a manual trailing limit order yourself.
EURAUD Head And Shoulders?
Are you a Forex carry trader?
Don't look now but the EURAUD has completed two out of three components of a head and shoulders pattern on the hourlies.
You might want to be on the lookout for this over the next several hours. If it activates it could spell a nice downward move for this carry pair.
Don't look now but the EURAUD has completed two out of three components of a head and shoulders pattern on the hourlies.
You might want to be on the lookout for this over the next several hours. If it activates it could spell a nice downward move for this carry pair.
Carry Trade Panic Selling?
Did anyone notice the panic selling out there?
All kinds of carry trades unwound several hundred points in a very short period of time. Speculation in the Forex news rags suggests that losses due to the falling stock exchanges forced people to unwind their carry trades to cover their margins.
In any case, after days of regimented downward movement, the sudden fallout represented a panic moment -- for someone. In the short term, at the very least, this should represent opportunity. I've stuck my toe in.
I certainly don't know if it represents a bottom, but if everyone that wanted out got out, then it won't have much pressure to fall further.
Personally, I'm looking at the Yen based carry trades. Things like the EURJPY, GBPJPY, and the AUDJPY. While the US may eventually recover and raise interest rates, I don't see the Japanese being able to raise interest rates while their currency is appreciating.
How in the world would they compete internationally, exporting products, if they drove their prices up now when everyone else looks to be faltering already?
Have I mentioned lately how important it is to have money on the sidelines so that you can take a poke at raging opportunities? Whether or not you are a fan of his, Jim Cramer also is a proponent of not being fully invested -- which he states is a common joe public trader type of mistake.
Big opportunities offer big profits, but only if the opportunity didn't break you as it was developing.
All kinds of carry trades unwound several hundred points in a very short period of time. Speculation in the Forex news rags suggests that losses due to the falling stock exchanges forced people to unwind their carry trades to cover their margins.
In any case, after days of regimented downward movement, the sudden fallout represented a panic moment -- for someone. In the short term, at the very least, this should represent opportunity. I've stuck my toe in.
I certainly don't know if it represents a bottom, but if everyone that wanted out got out, then it won't have much pressure to fall further.
Personally, I'm looking at the Yen based carry trades. Things like the EURJPY, GBPJPY, and the AUDJPY. While the US may eventually recover and raise interest rates, I don't see the Japanese being able to raise interest rates while their currency is appreciating.
How in the world would they compete internationally, exporting products, if they drove their prices up now when everyone else looks to be faltering already?
Have I mentioned lately how important it is to have money on the sidelines so that you can take a poke at raging opportunities? Whether or not you are a fan of his, Jim Cramer also is a proponent of not being fully invested -- which he states is a common joe public trader type of mistake.
Big opportunities offer big profits, but only if the opportunity didn't break you as it was developing.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Forex Fun and Profit with Correlations
What is the first thing that comes to mind when you think of Forex trading? I'm willing to bet that it isn't fun.
Well, recently I've been enjoying trading a little more than usual.
While doing a bit of reading I found a link talking about currency correlations. Go take a look at the charts provided (scroll down a bit). Notice anything? Generally, when a currency pair you are holding rises or falls, there is another currency pair that is moving in a different direction.
I know, this shouldn't be a revelation to anyone, should it?
However, if you open positions in two currencies that have a high negative correlation you will often see one of them being profitable in the near term. Then, if you are careful, you can pick good moments to close and reopen your offsetting positions. Furthermore, if you generally participate in carry trades, as I do, you'll have an ability to enter more positions with less variability in your drawdown.
Of course, don't get me wrong, this does entail a higher level of risk. At the very least you must be aware that a correlation present now may suddenly disappear or reverse at any time. Alternately, once you open or close a trade at what appears to be an opportune moment, the market may move unexpectedly while you don't have an offsetting currency pair. This is nothing new, but if you are trading a higher percentage of your NAV you will be exposed to higher risks.
Personally, I use an account with a small relative balance for this type of trading. When I am making profits I siphon much of them out into an account that is not exposed to such a high level of risk. As a bonus, highs and lows demonstrated in the correlations account indicate good entry points in my less risky accounts.
So, where's the fun? The fun is in seeing profitable positions a majority of the time. It's in having just about any move, and it's reversal, present an opportunity to you in one currency or another. The long periods of waiting and boredom are reduced. All you have to do is be willing to accept some risk on an account set up for this purpose.
Addendum: In the last 12 hours the NAV on my high risk account increased by 5.66%! Now that's fun. I've closed all open trades as it's time to start the work day...
Well, recently I've been enjoying trading a little more than usual.
While doing a bit of reading I found a link talking about currency correlations. Go take a look at the charts provided (scroll down a bit). Notice anything? Generally, when a currency pair you are holding rises or falls, there is another currency pair that is moving in a different direction.
I know, this shouldn't be a revelation to anyone, should it?
However, if you open positions in two currencies that have a high negative correlation you will often see one of them being profitable in the near term. Then, if you are careful, you can pick good moments to close and reopen your offsetting positions. Furthermore, if you generally participate in carry trades, as I do, you'll have an ability to enter more positions with less variability in your drawdown.
Of course, don't get me wrong, this does entail a higher level of risk. At the very least you must be aware that a correlation present now may suddenly disappear or reverse at any time. Alternately, once you open or close a trade at what appears to be an opportune moment, the market may move unexpectedly while you don't have an offsetting currency pair. This is nothing new, but if you are trading a higher percentage of your NAV you will be exposed to higher risks.
Personally, I use an account with a small relative balance for this type of trading. When I am making profits I siphon much of them out into an account that is not exposed to such a high level of risk. As a bonus, highs and lows demonstrated in the correlations account indicate good entry points in my less risky accounts.
So, where's the fun? The fun is in seeing profitable positions a majority of the time. It's in having just about any move, and it's reversal, present an opportunity to you in one currency or another. The long periods of waiting and boredom are reduced. All you have to do is be willing to accept some risk on an account set up for this purpose.
Addendum: In the last 12 hours the NAV on my high risk account increased by 5.66%! Now that's fun. I've closed all open trades as it's time to start the work day...
Forex Turmoil: Still On The Sidelines
During the last few weeks of topsy-turvy price movements I've been playing it safe. I like to buy carry trade pairs, but they've been heading down a lot.
Now, the big question, when will things start to turn around? A few of the pairs are getting into historically low valuations. For example, take a look at the GBPJPY pair on google finance -- click the 5yr option when it loads.
Sure, we could set new lows, perhaps for a months or years, but the odds of the UK having lower interests rates than Japan seems rather extreme. At some point, when things do finally settle down in another year or more, the GBPJPY will start to get attractive.
Other pairs, such as GBPUSD or EURUSD, which represent a bet against the US dollar make me nervous. While there is a possibility that some parts of the world, notably Australia, New Zealand and Asia, can avoid a recessionary period it's also very possible that the sinking US dollar will create a large enough trade advantage to shift the slowdown from the US to other countries as their own companies find it harder to compete internationally.
Anyway, I don't know how it will play out and from what I've learned buying a currency without having a clear notion of what you expect to happen is akin to gambling. Sure, you can be wrong when you believe something, but at least then you aren't throwing your money at the toss of the dice... and often it is possible to figure out what is going on to some degree.
So, for now, I'm keeping an eye on the JPY crosses. Perhaps the AUDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY and CADJPY will find themselves showing up in my account?
Now, the big question, when will things start to turn around? A few of the pairs are getting into historically low valuations. For example, take a look at the GBPJPY pair on google finance -- click the 5yr option when it loads.
Sure, we could set new lows, perhaps for a months or years, but the odds of the UK having lower interests rates than Japan seems rather extreme. At some point, when things do finally settle down in another year or more, the GBPJPY will start to get attractive.
Other pairs, such as GBPUSD or EURUSD, which represent a bet against the US dollar make me nervous. While there is a possibility that some parts of the world, notably Australia, New Zealand and Asia, can avoid a recessionary period it's also very possible that the sinking US dollar will create a large enough trade advantage to shift the slowdown from the US to other countries as their own companies find it harder to compete internationally.
Anyway, I don't know how it will play out and from what I've learned buying a currency without having a clear notion of what you expect to happen is akin to gambling. Sure, you can be wrong when you believe something, but at least then you aren't throwing your money at the toss of the dice... and often it is possible to figure out what is going on to some degree.
So, for now, I'm keeping an eye on the JPY crosses. Perhaps the AUDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY and CADJPY will find themselves showing up in my account?
Forex Market Turmoil
My recent excellent trading week was followed by a less than stellar week. Basically, I was caught by surprise when the US markets, and hence the US dollar, started to make a comeback.
I've been cutting my teeth in the forex market for over a year now, but this entire period has been associated with a weakening US dollar. The market mechanics seem to be changing around -- so I'm finding it more difficult to trade. Currencies aren't bouncing off their bollinger boundaries anymore and instead are trading flat for extended periods of time.
There's no good indication of future expections coming out of a flat line. Plenty of indicators, such as stochastics, become worthless when they are operating on moves of only a few pips. They are no longer able to predict entry points that are very likely to coincide with meaningful price moves.
In light of all this, I've swapped much of my capital into my low risk carry trading account.
I'm learning, slowly, that it's all about preservation of capital. In uncertain times hunker down and protect what you have. When things start to operate according to your plan you can then bring out the big guns and start working within those more favorable conditions.
Don't try to force the market to give you money. If it's acting counter to what you are used to then it's time to regroup and figure out what is going on. For example, if the US markets start to show signs of an underlying economic recovery, we'll be able to expect US interest rates to rise. We could be in for several years of US dollar recovery while the Eurozone, which hasn't swallowed as much medicine, may still have to work out some issues.
Obviously, I'm not certain on the timing, but when the market participants who exited the dollar return to it, you don't want to be on the wrong side of that trade.
I've been cutting my teeth in the forex market for over a year now, but this entire period has been associated with a weakening US dollar. The market mechanics seem to be changing around -- so I'm finding it more difficult to trade. Currencies aren't bouncing off their bollinger boundaries anymore and instead are trading flat for extended periods of time.
There's no good indication of future expections coming out of a flat line. Plenty of indicators, such as stochastics, become worthless when they are operating on moves of only a few pips. They are no longer able to predict entry points that are very likely to coincide with meaningful price moves.
In light of all this, I've swapped much of my capital into my low risk carry trading account.
I'm learning, slowly, that it's all about preservation of capital. In uncertain times hunker down and protect what you have. When things start to operate according to your plan you can then bring out the big guns and start working within those more favorable conditions.
Don't try to force the market to give you money. If it's acting counter to what you are used to then it's time to regroup and figure out what is going on. For example, if the US markets start to show signs of an underlying economic recovery, we'll be able to expect US interest rates to rise. We could be in for several years of US dollar recovery while the Eurozone, which hasn't swallowed as much medicine, may still have to work out some issues.
Obviously, I'm not certain on the timing, but when the market participants who exited the dollar return to it, you don't want to be on the wrong side of that trade.
Friday, August 8, 2008
Forex - An eye on the market
Forex traders can either work in a bank or in a company,' says Gary Lai, front office manager of recruitment firm Robert Walters. 'For most of these corporations, the traders are there for hedging purposes, but in banks, there is a group of proprietary traders who trade for profits for the bank.'
'The long-term prospects are not good, given that, in the near future, the world is heading towards a few currencies only. First, the euro. And in the Americas, the US$ is a de facto single currency, while Asia is thinking about having one currency too. So the volatility has dropped a lot, making trading harder.'
- a forex trader
The traders make money for their institutions by buying currency and selling it later at a higher price or, if they anticipate that the market is heading down, by selling at a high price first and buying back at a lower price later.
- a forex trader
The traders make money for their institutions by buying currency and selling it later at a higher price or, if they anticipate that the market is heading down, by selling at a high price first and buying back at a lower price later.
A forex trader working at a bank in Singapore describes the job as 'straightforward'. 'The person speculates which way the currency will move, much like equity traders. However, the forex market is much bigger,' he says. 'For example, if you expect the US dollar to appreciate against the Japanese yen, then you as a forex trader will buy USD so that you can sell it off later.'
As currency prices are constantly on the move, forex traders are inevitably subjected to a fast-paced environment which Mr Lai describes as 'a pressure cooker'. 'Even during lunch breaks, (traders) cover for each other; you bring lunch back and eat at your desk,' he says, adding that 'even when you go for toilet breaks, the markets can just move'.
As currency prices are constantly on the move, forex traders are inevitably subjected to a fast-paced environment which Mr Lai describes as 'a pressure cooker'. 'Even during lunch breaks, (traders) cover for each other; you bring lunch back and eat at your desk,' he says, adding that 'even when you go for toilet breaks, the markets can just move'.
Due to the high pressure that the job entails, traders should have certain characteristics.
'A good forex trader is highly adaptable, decisive and has the ability to think out of the box, especially in volatile situations,' says Angela Kuek, manager, banking and financial services of recruitment company Hudson. 'He has a steady mind, stays cool and is not easily distracted, veering off course from positioning strategies. He should have an eye for opportunities and precision.'
Mr Lai shares similar sentiments: 'To be successful in forex trading, or any trading for that matter, a person has to be very numbers-driven, able to take calculated risks; and be a very calm, collected person who doesn't get scared of losing money overnight.'
In addition, a trader should be up-to- date with current world issues which influence forex markets. 'He or she is constantly at the forefront of happenings and movements in the global financial markets,' says Ms Kuek.
Interestingly, these traits take precedence over academic qualifications. 'In the past, when you look for a trader, it's all track record. But these days, many traders have degrees, except for the European and American traders,' notes Mr Lai. 'Many brokerage houses (in Europe and the United States) don't require traders to have degrees; they need personality.'
'A good forex trader is highly adaptable, decisive and has the ability to think out of the box, especially in volatile situations,' says Angela Kuek, manager, banking and financial services of recruitment company Hudson. 'He has a steady mind, stays cool and is not easily distracted, veering off course from positioning strategies. He should have an eye for opportunities and precision.'
Mr Lai shares similar sentiments: 'To be successful in forex trading, or any trading for that matter, a person has to be very numbers-driven, able to take calculated risks; and be a very calm, collected person who doesn't get scared of losing money overnight.'
In addition, a trader should be up-to- date with current world issues which influence forex markets. 'He or she is constantly at the forefront of happenings and movements in the global financial markets,' says Ms Kuek.
Interestingly, these traits take precedence over academic qualifications. 'In the past, when you look for a trader, it's all track record. But these days, many traders have degrees, except for the European and American traders,' notes Mr Lai. 'Many brokerage houses (in Europe and the United States) don't require traders to have degrees; they need personality.'
However, he acknowledges that degrees are 'a given these days', especially in Asia.
The forex trader from the bank agrees that 'most banks would like to see at least a university degree', adding that when job interviews are conducted, the questions are 'secondary; the primary assessment will be based on the personality'.
The forex trader from the bank agrees that 'most banks would like to see at least a university degree', adding that when job interviews are conducted, the questions are 'secondary; the primary assessment will be based on the personality'.
Forex trading: a pressure cooker
Even with a driven personality, a trader's career life span tends to be short because of the high-stress work, reports QUAH CHIN CHIN
HAVING a career in foreign exchange (forex) trading often comes at a price, both literally and figuratively. It is exciting and lucrative - according to a survey last September by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), trade on global currency markets is worth more than US$3.2 trillion daily. This is approximately equal to the annual economic output of Germany, the world's third-largest economy.
Closer to home, Singapore is the world's fifth largest forex centre, with an annual daily turnover of US$231 billion.
Despite the whopping figures, forex trading is often fraught with risks and pressure. In this article, we give you a run-through on the important aspects for a career in forex trading.
HAVING a career in foreign exchange (forex) trading often comes at a price, both literally and figuratively. It is exciting and lucrative - according to a survey last September by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), trade on global currency markets is worth more than US$3.2 trillion daily. This is approximately equal to the annual economic output of Germany, the world's third-largest economy.
Closer to home, Singapore is the world's fifth largest forex centre, with an annual daily turnover of US$231 billion.
Despite the whopping figures, forex trading is often fraught with risks and pressure. In this article, we give you a run-through on the important aspects for a career in forex trading.
Sunday, August 3, 2008
O7BUX.NET
O7BUX.NET
At 07Bux.net, you get paid to click on ads and visit websites.
The process is easy! You simply click a link and view a website for 30 seconds to earn money. You can earn even more by referring friends. You'll get paid $0.01 for each website you personally view and $0.01 for each website your referrals view. Payment requests can be made every day and are processed through AlertPay. The minimum payout is $10.00.
SIGNUP:
visit:-www.07bux.net
PAYMENT PROOF:
At 07Bux.net, you get paid to click on ads and visit websites.
The process is easy! You simply click a link and view a website for 30 seconds to earn money. You can earn even more by referring friends. You'll get paid $0.01 for each website you personally view and $0.01 for each website your referrals view. Payment requests can be made every day and are processed through AlertPay. The minimum payout is $10.00.
SIGNUP:
visit:-www.07bux.net
PAYMENT PROOF:
5IVEBUX.COM
5IVEBUX.COM
This site also got the feature of instant cashout,min cash out is 10$
Membership Benefits:
- Earn up to 2 cents per click.
- Earn up 100% of your downline's earnings.
- Earn up to 15% of every purchase by downline.
- Refer Unlimited Amount of People.
- Easy and User-Friendly Interface
- Referral's Clicks and other Data.
- Fast Payments and Activations!
SIGNUP:
Visit :- 5IVEBUX.COM
PAYMENT PROOF:
This site also got the feature of instant cashout,min cash out is 10$
Membership Benefits:
- Earn up to 2 cents per click.
- Earn up 100% of your downline's earnings.
- Earn up to 15% of every purchase by downline.
- Refer Unlimited Amount of People.
- Easy and User-Friendly Interface
- Referral's Clicks and other Data.
- Fast Payments and Activations!
SIGNUP:
Visit :- 5IVEBUX.COM
PAYMENT PROOF:
TEN-ADS.COM
TEN-ADS.COM
At Ten-ads.com, you get paid to click on ads and visit websites. The process is easy! You simply click a link and view a website for a few seconds to earn money. You don't need any skills. This is because all you need to do is visit the sites we provide you with. You can earn even more by referring friends. Payment requests can be made every day and are processed through AlertPay. The minimum payout is $10.00
SIGNUP:
Visit :- TEN-ADS.COM
PAYMENT PROOF:
At Ten-ads.com, you get paid to click on ads and visit websites. The process is easy! You simply click a link and view a website for a few seconds to earn money. You don't need any skills. This is because all you need to do is visit the sites we provide you with. You can earn even more by referring friends. Payment requests can be made every day and are processed through AlertPay. The minimum payout is $10.00
SIGNUP:
Visit :- TEN-ADS.COM
PAYMENT PROOF:
CROCLIX.COM
CROCLIX.COM
At CroClix, you get paid to click on ads and visit websites. The process is easy! You simply click a link and view a website for a few seconds to earn money. You don't need any skills. This is because all you need to do is visit the sites we provide you with. You can earn even more by referring friends. Payment requests can be made every day and are processed through AlertPay. The minimum payout is $5. You can even invest your money to our patner program and double it over and over again!
SIGNUP:
PAYMENT PROOF:
At CroClix, you get paid to click on ads and visit websites. The process is easy! You simply click a link and view a website for a few seconds to earn money. You don't need any skills. This is because all you need to do is visit the sites we provide you with. You can earn even more by referring friends. Payment requests can be made every day and are processed through AlertPay. The minimum payout is $5. You can even invest your money to our patner program and double it over and over again!
SIGNUP:
PAYMENT PROOF:
THINKBUX.COM
THINKBUX.COM
You get paid $0.01 per click. Premium members get paid $0.012 per click.Minimum payout is only $5! Payments are made via payPal and AlertPay!You can convert your ballance to advertise, referals and upgrade!You may buy advertisement or referals by PayPal or AlertPay!You may buy upgrade by AlertPay only!
SIGNUP
PAYMENT PROOF
You get paid $0.01 per click. Premium members get paid $0.012 per click.Minimum payout is only $5! Payments are made via payPal and AlertPay!You can convert your ballance to advertise, referals and upgrade!You may buy advertisement or referals by PayPal or AlertPay!You may buy upgrade by AlertPay only!
SIGNUP
PAYMENT PROOF
CREWBUX.COM
CREWBUX.COM
At CrewBux.com, you get paid to click on ads and visit websites. The process is easy! You simply click a link and view a website for a 20 seconds to earn money. You don't need any skills. You will earn $0.01 for each ad. This is because all you need to do is visit the sites we provide you with. You can earn even more by referring friends. You will earn $0.005 for each ad your direct refferals see too. Payment requests can be made every day and are processed through PayPal or Alerpay. The minimum payout is $5
SIGNUP
PAYMENT PROOF
At CrewBux.com, you get paid to click on ads and visit websites. The process is easy! You simply click a link and view a website for a 20 seconds to earn money. You don't need any skills. You will earn $0.01 for each ad. This is because all you need to do is visit the sites we provide you with. You can earn even more by referring friends. You will earn $0.005 for each ad your direct refferals see too. Payment requests can be made every day and are processed through PayPal or Alerpay. The minimum payout is $5
SIGNUP
PAYMENT PROOF
XCLIX.NET
XCLIX.NET
At Xclix, you get paid to click on ads and visit websites. The process is easy! You will win $0.01 per each ad you see for 30 seconds.You will earn $0.005 for each ad your direct refferals see too. If you upgrade to our premium membership you can earn even more. Payment requests can be made every day and are processed through ALERTPAY! The minimum payout is $10
SIGNUP
PAYMENT PROOF
At Xclix, you get paid to click on ads and visit websites. The process is easy! You will win $0.01 per each ad you see for 30 seconds.You will earn $0.005 for each ad your direct refferals see too. If you upgrade to our premium membership you can earn even more. Payment requests can be made every day and are processed through ALERTPAY! The minimum payout is $10
How much can I earn?
If you click 10 ads a day, you refer 100 members who click 10 ads a day, you could earn up to $153 monthly, that means $1836 yearly. With more referrals or ads the earning potential is endless.SIGNUP
PAYMENT PROOF
FOXCASH.NET
FOXCASH.NET
At FoxCash.net, you get paid to click on ads and visit websites.
The process is easy! You simply click a link and view a website for 30 seconds to earn money. You can earn even more by referring friends. You'll get paid $0.0150 for each website you personally view and $0.01 for each website your referrals view. Payment requests can be made every day and are processed through AlertPay. The minimum payout is $10.00.
At FoxCash.net, you get paid to click on ads and visit websites.
The process is easy! You simply click a link and view a website for 30 seconds to earn money. You can earn even more by referring friends. You'll get paid $0.0150 for each website you personally view and $0.01 for each website your referrals view. Payment requests can be made every day and are processed through AlertPay. The minimum payout is $10.00.
Earnings Example
- You click 10 ads per day = $0.15
- 20 referrals click 10 ads per day = $2.00
- Your daily earnings = $2.15
- Your weekly earnings = $15.05
- Your monthly earnings = $60.02
NEOBUX.COM
NEOBUX.COM
The main feature of this site is instant cashout ,rent referal for very low price and high level of security
SIGNUP
The main feature of this site is instant cashout ,rent referal for very low price and high level of security
SIGNUP
BUX.TO
BUX.TO
At Bux.to, you get paid to click on ads and visit websites. The process is easy! You simply click a link and view a website for 30 seconds to earn money. You can earn even more by referring friends. You'll get paid $0.01 for each website you personally view and $0.01 for each website your referrals view. Payment requests can be made every day and are processed through AlertPay. The minimum payout is $10.00.
Earnings example
» You click 10 ads per day = $0.10
» 20 referrals click 10 ads per day = $2.00
» Your daily earnings = $2.10
» Your weekly earnings = $14.70
» Your monthly earnings = $63.00
SIGNUP:
Payment proof
At Bux.to, you get paid to click on ads and visit websites. The process is easy! You simply click a link and view a website for 30 seconds to earn money. You can earn even more by referring friends. You'll get paid $0.01 for each website you personally view and $0.01 for each website your referrals view. Payment requests can be made every day and are processed through AlertPay. The minimum payout is $10.00.
Earnings example
» You click 10 ads per day = $0.10
» 20 referrals click 10 ads per day = $2.00
» Your daily earnings = $2.10
» Your weekly earnings = $14.70
» Your monthly earnings = $63.00
SIGNUP:
Payment proof
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Does Entrecard helps
My question - Does Entrecard and dropping cards helps? I've been trying for the last few days to do card dropping (Entrecard) and trying to understand the whole process and idea behind it.
I think I like it! It's a great idea of getting free traffic to your website, making some friends, learning some tricks from other bloggers but I know that I have to plan my time as well. Entrecard is very .... like a gambling but here you don't spend real money.
It brings good traffic, people leave comments without being forced into it. (I mean various contests.....where there is a comment but it's empty with real content.... you probably know what I mean.... we all did it).
I think I like it! It's a great idea of getting free traffic to your website, making some friends, learning some tricks from other bloggers but I know that I have to plan my time as well. Entrecard is very .... like a gambling but here you don't spend real money.
It brings good traffic, people leave comments without being forced into it. (I mean various contests.....where there is a comment but it's empty with real content.... you probably know what I mean.... we all did it).
So what is next? I'll be trying to figure out how to earn more bucks. If you are first time here and you don't know about my 10000 $ blogging plan click here and about my inspiration - Bloggernoob.
Use Google adwords and Yahoo
Use Google adwords and Yahoo to attract more traffic to your websites. I have tried them both. I think I need more time to figure it out. For every job we do, we should allocate enough time.
Young bloggers like me don't have big bucks to splash out (not yet) on advertising but it's really depends how much we want to invest in our virtual empires.
Your 1st choice is Yahoo! Sponsored Search lists your business on top sites like Yahoo!, AltaVista and CNN. Sign up and get a $25 credit.
2nd but no least famous Google Adwords! Reach your online advertising goals with cost-per-click advertising.
or dominate the competition using Adwords, Overture & More. KeyCompete.com
Young bloggers like me don't have big bucks to splash out (not yet) on advertising but it's really depends how much we want to invest in our virtual empires.
Your 1st choice is Yahoo! Sponsored Search lists your business on top sites like Yahoo!, AltaVista and CNN. Sign up and get a $25 credit.
2nd but no least famous Google Adwords! Reach your online advertising goals with cost-per-click advertising.
or dominate the competition using Adwords, Overture & More. KeyCompete.com
Inside AdSense: Introducing Google referrals
Following our recent series of referrals announcements, we're happy to announce that you can now earn $5 per referral for Google Apps.
With Google Apps, we've taken Google's most powerful communication and collaboration tools, and packaged them together so businesses, schools and other organizations can work more effectively while spending less time and money on IT systems. Google Apps provides customized email addresses (powered by Gmail), Google Calendar, Google Talk, Docs & Spreadsheets and Page Creator, all for free. Best of all, everything is hosted by Google, so there's no hardware or software to download, install or maintain.
So how do these referrals work? Just visit the AdSense Setup tab in your AdSense account and click the link for Referrals. Select the Google Apps option and then choose how you want the referral ad to look on your site. (The Google Apps referral ads are available in English right now, but we'll be adding more languages soon.) Copy the code provided into the design of your web pages, and voila!
You will be credited $5 when someone clicks the referral ad from your site and signs up for Google Apps with a domain that has not already been signed up for the service. That person's domain must then have one or more Google Apps email accounts in use for four consecutive weeks. It's that simple.
If you're new to AdSense referrals, you might want to check out our referrals optimization tips.
With Google Apps, we've taken Google's most powerful communication and collaboration tools, and packaged them together so businesses, schools and other organizations can work more effectively while spending less time and money on IT systems. Google Apps provides customized email addresses (powered by Gmail), Google Calendar, Google Talk, Docs & Spreadsheets and Page Creator, all for free. Best of all, everything is hosted by Google, so there's no hardware or software to download, install or maintain.
So how do these referrals work? Just visit the AdSense Setup tab in your AdSense account and click the link for Referrals. Select the Google Apps option and then choose how you want the referral ad to look on your site. (The Google Apps referral ads are available in English right now, but we'll be adding more languages soon.) Copy the code provided into the design of your web pages, and voila!
You will be credited $5 when someone clicks the referral ad from your site and signs up for Google Apps with a domain that has not already been signed up for the service. That person's domain must then have one or more Google Apps email accounts in use for four consecutive weeks. It's that simple.
If you're new to AdSense referrals, you might want to check out our referrals optimization tips.
Saturday, July 5, 2008
Google Adsense for Referrals were Retiring
YES YOU HEARD IT RIGHT!! Google adsense for referrals will be retiring from its Referral Program!
As they have sent an email to all those adsense refferal users.
Here's the email from Google adsense:
Hello,
Thank you for participating in the AdSense Referrals program.
We’re writing to let you know that we will be retiring the AdSense
Referrals program during the last week of August. We appreciate
your patience during this transition and here are some alternative
options to consider:
* Google Affiliate Network: As part of the integration of
DoubleClick, the DoubleClick Performics Affiliate Network will now
operate as the Google Affiliate Network for advertisers targeting
users located in the United States. Similar to the AdSense
Referrals program, the Google Affiliate Network enables publishers
to apply for advertiser programs and get paid based on
advertiser-defined actions instead of clicks or impressions. For
further details, please visit:
www.google.com/ads/affiliatene
* AdSense for content ads: If you have less than three AdSense
for content ad units on a page, you may wish to replace the
referral ad units with standard AFC ad units.
If you currently use referral ads, either to promote Google
products or offerings from AdWords advertisers, AdSense Referrals
code will no longer display ads beginning the last week of August.
We encourage you to take the following steps before the product is
retired:
* Remove the referral code from your site(s): Please take a
moment to remove all referral code from your sites before the last
week of August, so you can continue to effectively monetize your
ad space.
* Run and save all referrals reports on your desktop: Create
and save all reports related to the referrals program on your
desktop, so you continue to have access to your valuable campaign
information
Why is this happening?
We're constantly looking for ways to improve AdSense by developing
and supporting features which drive the best monetization results
for our publishers. Sometimes, this requires retiring existing
features so we can focus our efforts on the ones that will be most
effective in the long term. For this reason, we will be retiring
the AdSense Referrals program. If you have any additional
questions, please visit our Help Center:
http://www.google.com/adsense
Sincerely.
The Google AdSense Team
------------------------------
Email preferences: You have received this mandatory email service
announcement to update you about the retirement of an AdSense
feature.
Google Inc.
1600 Amphitheatre Parkway
Mountain View, CA 94043
Google Adsense ' Better than any other program '
Google’s AdSense is a fascinating revenue-sharing opportunity for small, medium and large web sites. Some webmasters are designing brand new sites specifically for serving AdSense text ads. (It’s against the AdSense rules to design a site purely for AdSense, so you’ll want to include a few affiliate
links or sell your own product, too.)
links or sell your own product, too.) I read an article about how to increase adsense revenue from associate programs here is the analysis from the article
Let’s say you have a goal of earning $100,000 a year from AdSense. Is that possible? Let’s see … $100,000 divided by 365 = $274 a day. So your goal is to produce either:
- 274 pages which earn $1 a day or
- 548 pages which earn 50 cents a day or
- 1096 pages which earn 25 cents a day
The following are hypothetical cases. To earn $1 a day per page, you need, per page…
- 400 visitors, 5% click-through rate (CTR
- Or 200 visitors, 10% CTR and an average 5c payout.
- Or 100 visitors, 10% CTR, and an average 10c payout.
- Or 100 visitors, 5% CTR, and an average 20c payout
Let’s assume you choose a goal somewhere around the middle, say aiming for 50 visitors per page and want 274 pages earning $1 a day. You’d need 274 x 50 = 13,700 pageviews a day.
Does that sound too tough? If so, you’d better look for more profitable keywords and ways to improve your click-through rates.
Let’s try a different scenario, You choose more profitable keywords and make your $1 on average per page from, say, 10 visitors. 274 x 10 = 2740 pageviews a day, That’s looking easier to achieve, If your average visitor sees 3 pages, you now need 913 unique visitors a day.
Is that too tough to achieve in your niche? If so, create two sites, each attracting half that number, 456 unique visitors, a day, Can’t achieve those click-through rates and payouts? Then you’ll either need more pages on your sites on more niche sites.
Please note, because of the AdSense rules, these are all hypothetical cases. I’m not allowed to give real cases. Real CTR rates and payouts vary hugely.Choose the goal which best matches your site or sites.
Then start building keyword-rich pages containing well researched, profitable keywords, and get lots of high quality links to your site.
For example, if your site is about topics such as debt consolidation, web hosting or asbestos-related cancer, you’ll earn much more per click than if it’s about free things.
On the other hand, if you concentrate only on top-paying keywords, you’ll face an awful lot of tough competition.
What you want are keywords that are high in demand and low in supply, So do some careful keyword research before you build your pages.
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